Why More Cocoa Production Won’t Sweeten Chocolate Prices This Halloween – culturebanx

By Tamia Ncube

Cocoa production is expected to increase in West Africa, but chocolate prices will remain high

Farmgate prices in Ghana are rising by 45% to protect farmers, while slow supply growth and viral infections hurt overall yields

The world’s appetite for chocolate remains insatiable, yet as West Africa increases cocoa production, consumers are unlikely to see a break in chocolate prices. Despite projections of West African cocoa farmers boosting production, prices per metric ton are expected to rise to $10,000 , driven by several complex factors that combine both business dynamics and cultural shifts.

Why This Matters: Climate change is throwing a wrench into cocoa supply and pricing, especially for the top producers like Ivory Coast and Ghana. There was a surge in prices in the first quarter of the year and such unpredictable weather patterns mean prices are staying up, prompting these countries to boost farmgate prices by a whopping 45% to shield their farmers from market ups and downs in this volatile climate. So while there may be an increase in cocoa production, it won’t necessarily translate into more chocolate at lower prices. The maturity of high-yielding cocoa trees takes up to five years, meaning any significant increases in supply are a slow burn.

Furthermore, diseases like the cocoa swollen shoot virus can wipe out up to 70% of a crop’s yield, complicating efforts to stabilize production. With predictions of candy production decreasing by around 14%, brace yourself for a spooky shortage this Halloween. You’ll notice fewer options or even higher prices as manufacturers adjust to the reduced supply. It’s a challenging situation for both producers and consumers, so a shift may be happening as both parties seek alternatives.

What’s Next: While cocoa farmers fight to protect their way of life, the supply-demand gap is going to keep pushing chocolate prices higher, no matter how much cocoa is produced. The complexities of the cocoa market are yet to be addressed because factors like labor costs, sustainability practices, and the need for better farming techniques are still dangling. The time to act is now before the availability and affordability of chocolate becomes a distant memory.

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