Economist Will Page On The Future Of Music Streaming Platforms

One of the most unique insights into the state of the music business today doesn’t come from a record label exec. Not from an agent. Not from an artist. No, it comes from Scottish economist Will Page, who served that role for Spotify from 2012 to 2019 — a period of explosive growth for the streaming giant. But if you ask Page about streaming’s future, he’s not nearly as optimistic as the rest of the industry. “The party has to come to an end,” as he told me on this episode of Trapital.

Page believes the music industry is transitioning from a “herbivore market” to a “carnivore” one. In other words, future growth will not come from brand-new customers — it’ll come from the streaming services eating into each other’s market share. Not only has subscriber counts possibly tapped out in Page’s opinion, but streaming services have also put a ceiling on revenues by charging only $9.99, a price that hasn’t budged in 20 years despite giant leaps in technology, music catalog size, and inflation.

That against-the-grain prediction was one of many Will shared with me during our in-depth interview. But he has plenty more research- and experience-backed thoughts on touring, vinyl records, Web 3.0, and everything in between. Believe me, this is an interview you don’t want to miss. Here’s everything we covered:

0:48 Why Will Moonlights As A DJ
2:04 Lopsided Growth Of Music Streaming In Global Markets
3:50 Vinyl Records $1.5 Billion Recovery
7:43 Will’s Bearish View About The Future Of Streaming
13:49 Ongoing Price War Between Streaming Services
16:07 Is There Really A Consumer Surplus For Streaming?
18:15 The Changing Economics Of Music Touring
21:16 Performing At Festivals Vs. Tours
24:44 The Aging Of The Festival Headliner
26:11 The Evolution Of Music Publishing
30:52 How Music Revenue Gets Distributed To Publishers
34:35 What Does A “Post-Spotify Economy” Look Like?
37:40 Will’s Biggest Issues With Web 3.0
44:47 The Current Business Landscape Of Hip-Hop
53:53 Will’s “We We Ain’t Done With 2021” Mix

Listen to Will’s mix right here: https://www.mixcloud.com/willpagesnc/we-aint-done-with-2021/

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