Polymarket had Lady Gaga at 85% likely to appear with Bad Bunny at the halftime show, one day before the Super Bowl.

Lady Gaga, who was a surprise guest, had no prior songs with Bad Bunny, already had her own halftime show, performs a different genre of music, and just performed at the Grammys the week before… at 85%??

Clearly it was an accurate outcome, but it raises a real question. Was it a true “prediction” market? Or was the market shifted by insiders monetizing their non-public information and access to the run of show?

Live events have small circles of people with non-public info (rehearsals, security, production). Markets can now turn that into a tradable asset.

How should these companies respond? Tighter access controls, stricter enforcement, or regulation?

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